Gallup Survey Reveals Voter Party ID by Age

May 14th, 2009 by Brian Donahue

264555-13-generationsjpgFrom Jan. 2 to May 5, 2009, Gallup conducted a survey of 123,890 national adults, aged 18 and older, as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

While the overall findings of the survey aren’t surprising, with Democratic partisanship holding a majority of support across the board, especially with younger voters, Gallup’s breakout analysis does give some greater insight into age and generational breaks.

What I like best about this survey is the massive amount of interviews conducted.  This allows for a high confidence level across all age and generational breaks.

Here are the findings of the Gallup Survey as summarized by Gallup’s FRANK NEWPORT:

PART 1: PARTY ID BY AGE BREAK

Democrats currently enjoy a party identification advantage over Republicans among Americans at every age between 18 to 85.

The Democrats’ greatest advantages come among those in their 20s and baby boomers in their late 40s and 50s.

Republicans, on the other hand, come closest to parity with Democrats among Generation Xers in their late 30s and early 40s and among seniors in their late 60s.

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INDEPENDENT

The percentage of Americans who identify as independents is directly and inversely related to age.

More than one-third of the youngest Americans identify as independents, a percentage that drops steadily as the population ages, reaching a low of around 20% among those 80 years of age and older.

REPUBLICAN

The percentage of Americans who identify as Republicans follows roughly the opposite pattern.

Only around 20% of young Americans below the age of 25 identify as Republicans.

The percent Republican grows slightly from that point as age increases, up until roughly Americans’ mid-40s, and then settles back among baby boomers in their late 40s and 50s.

As Americans age into their 60s, the Republican percentage climbs, reaching levels of about 30% and above on average after age 67.

DEMOCRAT

The percentage of Americans who identify as Democrats follows still a different path.

Democrats are quite strong among the youngest Americans, particularly those under age 24, among whom more identify as Democrats than independents.

The percent Democrat stays at about the one-third mark until about age 45, when it climbs slightly and remains higher through the 50s and early 60s.

From that point on, the percent Democrat hovers around the 40% point, although there is quite a bit of fluctuation from age to age for Americans in their late 60s, 70s, and early 80s.

AGE DEMO SUMMARY

From a broad perspective, Republicans face a deficit among Americans of all ages.

At no single age does the percent Republican exceed the percent Democrat.

Still, the range of this Democratic advantage (% Democrat minus % Republican) is quite large, extending from an 18 percentage point Democratic advantage among those 21, 23, and 25, down to just a to 3-point edge among those 39, 43, and 69.

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PART 2: PART ID BY GENERATIONAL BREAK

Democrats, somewhat unsurprisingly, have the largest partisan ID advantage among Gen Y’ers, followed by among Baby Boomers.

Republicans do relatively well (although are still at a net disadvantage) among Generation X’ers.

kjnpmi9s5067blppfdhtkgGENERATION Y - Generation Y (18 to 29) clearly is skewed fairly strongly in the direction of being either independent or Democratic in political orientation. This group constitutes a significant weakness for the Republican Party.

GENERATION X - Generation X (30 to 44) includes some of the strongest support for Republicans. For whatever reasons, the Democratic over Republican gap among Generation Xers, particularly those ages 37 to 43 at the heart of this generation, is on a relative basis much closer to parity than for any other age group with the exception of those in their late 60s.

BABY BOOMERS - Baby Boomers (45 to 63) skew Democratic in their political orientation, with the Democratic advantage reaching a peak at ages 58 and 59.

SENIORS - Seniors have a more mixed pattern of party identification, with Republicans gaining on a relative basis among those in their late 60s, but with Democrats doing better as Americans age into their 70s and early 80s.

SUMMARY

Again, for anyone who is a professional or student of politics, these findings are not shocking.  There are normal partisan shifts a few years and every few generations in politics.

The most important factor is understanding the socio-cultural issues and the  events that impact a generation, which usually will convey a partisan disposition toward one party or another.  This overall party pre-disposition is also heavily impacted by the perceived performance of the president in power when the voter turned 18, the voting age in America.

The most important voting sector to political operatives and strategists are the voters that tend to shift with fluctuations in party performance and alignment with voters values and beliefs, regardless of their generational pre-disposition.


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